Mass Market Baccarat Leads Macau’s Casino Recovery
While online baccarat may have surged in popularity during the pandemic, the land version of the game is just as popular as ever. Macau’s Gaming industry continued post-pandemic recovery in 2024 and mass market baccarat revenue reaching MOP 137.9 billion (USD 17.2 billion), which exceeds the revenue in the final pre-pandemic full year of 2019.
However, while the overall trend is positive, the region’s casinos have experienced a slow start to 2025, with January gaming revenue falling short of expectations.
Mass Market Baccarat Drives 2024 Growth
Baccarat remains the dominant game in Macau and it accounts for 85% of total gaming revenue. In 2024, the mass market segment saw strong gains, surpassing 2019 levels and proving resilient to changing industry dynamics. Unlike the VIP segment, which has struggled due to regulatory changes, mass market baccarat has benefited from the return of casual players and tourists.
Overall, Macau’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) for 2024 reached MOP 226.8 billion (USD 28.3 billion), which represents 77.5% of the levels recorded in 2019. This shows a continued recovery from the pandemic-related downturn, boosted by a steady increase in visitor numbers and spending. Authorities have projected even further growth in 2025, with a target of MOP 240 billion (USD 30 billion).
VIP Baccarat’s Decline and Changing Market Dynamics
While mass market baccarat flourished, the VIP sector continued its downward trajectory. In 2024, VIP baccarat revenue totaled MOP 54.7 billion (USD 6.8 billion), which was just 24% of total gaming revenue. This represents only 40% of the VIP revenue recorded in 2019, showing just how much the sector has shrunk.
VIP baccarat once dominated Macau, peaking in 2013, when it accounted for two-thirds of the total revenue. However, the decline of junket operators, historically responsible for bringing high rollers to Macau, has changed the industry. The crackdown on leading junket groups, including the arrests of Suncity’s Alvin Chau and Tak Chun’s Levo Chan, has left the VIP segment struggling to recover.
With junket operators playing a marginal role, Macau’s casinos have shifted their focus to mass market players and implemented strategies aimed at attracting a broader range of visitors. This shift has helped stabilize revenue streams and reduce reliance on high-stakes VIP gamblers.
Macau’s Casino Industry Enters 2025 with a Slow Start
Despite the strong performance in 2024, Macau’s casino industry began 2025 with a dip in revenue. January GGR totaled MOP 18.25 billion (USD 2.27 billion), a 5.6% year-over-year decline. Analysts had anticipated a slight downturn, forecasting a drop of up to 4%, but the actual figures fell below expectations.
The decline was largely attributed to a difficult comparison with January 2024, which saw strong VIP baccarat volumes and higher-than-usual hold rates. In contrast, January 2025 experienced weaker high-roller play and more typical house edge returns.
Although January’s figures were disappointing, the decline is not necessarily indicative of a long-term trend. Analysts noted that a noticeable pre-holiday slowdown may have contributed to the weaker performance, as many visitors likely delayed their trips in anticipation of the Chinese New Year holiday.
While January’s results were underwhelming, the outlook for February and the rest of 2025 remains positive. The Chinese New Year holiday, which began on January 29, was expected to drive a surge in visitors and gaming revenue.
JP Morgan analysts predict that February GGR will increase by 3% to 5%, helping to bring overall revenue for the first two months of 2025 closer to 2024 levels. For the full year, the brokerage expects a 5% increase in total gaming revenue and a third consecutive year of growth.
